Supported · Exits · 2026-10-11
Does moving to breakeven after TP1 help on 1h, 4h and daily?
What this means
Breakeven saves about 1.8 runners from a full stop for every runner it scratches that would have gone on to TP2. That sounds like a win, but each lost TP2 costs 2R while each save recovers only 1R, so it needs two saves per scratch just to break even. The two effects cancel almost exactly on every timeframe (−0.001 to −0.003R per setup). Breakeven makes results slightly smoother but adds no edge: it is a matter of preference about variance, not a source of profit.
Explanation checked against the data.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Verdict | n | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-minute | Supported | 997 | +0.107 with vs +0.099R without |
| 1-hour | Supported | 3,722 | -0.003R (-0.010, +0.004) |
| 4-hour | Supported | 1,088 | -0.003R (-0.015, +0.009) |
| Daily | Supported | 2,048 | -0.001R (-0.010, +0.007) |
- Hypothesis
- Stated before testing: breakeven doesn't change expectancy, because the full losses it saves are cancelled by runners it scratches at 0R that would have reached TP2.
- Method
- Our own simulation on TradingView setups, excluding the rare S3/TP3 runners. Daily 2016–2026 (2,048 setups); 1h and 4h November 2023–September 2026 (3,722 and 1,088 setups), limited by our hourly price data. From the bar TP1 is first touched, the runner is followed with and without breakeven; same-bar ties count against us. The simulated breakeven outcomes matched TradingView's actual labels on 94–96% of trades. 95% ranges are bootstrapped by stock.
- Result
- Runners reaching TP1: 1h 1,655, 4h 441, daily 938. Breakeven saved 238 / 55 / 114 runners from a full stop and scratched 130 / 32 / 60 that would have reached TP2. Mean setup R with vs without breakeven: 1h +0.175 vs +0.178 (−0.003, range −0.010 to +0.004); 4h +0.119 vs +0.122 (−0.003, −0.015 to +0.009); daily +0.238 vs +0.239 (−0.001, −0.010 to +0.007). Spread of results 1.3–1.6% lower with breakeven.
- How much to trust it
- High: Large samples, simulation reproduces TradingView's outcomes on ~95% of trades, and the same result on all three timeframes (and on 15m in the TradingView sweep).
- Did it change the live rule?
- No change: breakeven after TP1 stays, as a preference.
- Notes
- Confirms the 15m TradingView sweep on all four timeframes. 15m isn't re-simulated here because we hold no 15-minute price data.
Scripts and data for this study will be linked here when the research code is published on GitHub.
Education and research only. Not financial advice. Backtests use today's index members (survivorship bias).