Inconclusive · Instruments & watchlist · 2026-09-25
Did the live-alert instruments fall from 69% to 55% win rate?
What this means
The '69% to 55%' drop compares two incompatible things: an old stats file looked up by ticker only, mixing timeframes and strategy versions, against whatever a chart layout happened to show. The '+210.88% cumulative' figure is confirmed as a plain sum of 67 separate per-stock returns, not a portfolio return, and CVNA alone adds +56%. Neither number should be cited, and no conclusion about live decline can be drawn.
The explanation is our best reading; the data shows the result but not the cause directly.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Verdict | n | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-minute | Not tested: mixed-timeframe scrape of a live layout vs an inconsistent stats file; nothing to extend | ||
| 1-hour | Not tested: mixed-timeframe scrape of a live layout vs an inconsistent stats file; nothing to extend | ||
| 4-hour | Not tested: mixed-timeframe scrape of a live layout vs an inconsistent stats file; nothing to extend | ||
| Daily | Not tested: mixed-timeframe scrape of a live layout vs an inconsistent stats file; nothing to extend | ||
- Hypothesis
- The 67 alert instruments perform worse 'live' than their baseline stats.
- Method
- Scraped whatever a TradingView layout showed for 67 alerts vs an older per-ticker stats file (looked up by ticker only, mixed timeframes and strategy versions).
- Result
- Report: 54.8% (199/363) vs 69.4% baseline; '+210.88% cumulative' is a sum of 67 separate per-asset returns (CVNA alone +56%). Trade counts match none of the sweeps; baseline rows have tiny samples and 16 of 143 rows with inconsistent win rates.
- How much to trust it
- Low: settings and samples differ on both sides; not a valid comparison
- Did it change the live rule?
- the basket was later rebuilt from the filter-off sweeps
- Notes
- Do not cite the 69% -> 55% drop or the +210.88%.
Scripts and data for this study will be linked here when the research code is published on GitHub.
Education and research only. Not financial advice. Backtests use today's index members (survivorship bias).