Inconclusive · Market regime · 2026-10-10
Is the edge stable year by year?
What this means
The average 1h setup was positive in all 11 years, but only about +0.01R in 2018 and 2022. Daily was negative in four years, including −0.28R in 2022. The edge is thin enough that a whole year can pass with little or nothing to show. The weak years on 1h, 4h and daily were falling-market years, which sits uneasily with the 15m finding that falling markets help.
The explanation is our best reading; the data shows the result but not the cause directly.
By timeframe
| Timeframe | Verdict | n | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-minute | Not supported | 16,496 | 2026 -0.04 |
| 1-hour | Supported | 13,208 | positive 11/11 years |
| 4-hour | Not supported | 3,990 | -0.08 in 2022 |
| Daily | Not supported | 2,098 | negative in 2018, 2022, 2025, 2026 |
- Hypothesis
- Mean setup R is positive in every calendar year.
- Method
- TradingView universe logs split by entry year.
- Result
- 1h positive in 11 of 11 years ('16 +0.20 ... '26 YTD +0.10) but about +0.01 in 2018 and 2022. 4h -0.08 in 2022. 1d -0.03 (2018), -0.28 (2022), -0.01 (2025), -0.04 (2026 YTD). 15m 2026 -0.04.
- How much to trust it
- High: TV fills; descriptive
- Did it change the live rule?
- No.
- Notes
- Weak years are falling-market years on 1h/4h/1d, the opposite of the 15m regime result.
Scripts and data for this study will be linked here when the research code is published on GitHub.
Education and research only. Not financial advice. Backtests use today's index members (survivorship bias).