Butterfly

B retraces about 78.6% of XA, and D extends beyond X, to 127.2–161.8% of XA. The pattern buys a new low that falls into a measured extension.

Idealised bullish shape. The strategy only trades bullish patterns.

The rule, exactly as coded

From classifyStrictSymmetrical in harmonic_master_ledger_quant.pine (commit adaa8cb). Ratios are distances between points; "≈" means within ±6% of the value. Patterns are checked in order and the first match wins (this is #3).

BC/AB between 0.5 and 0.886 (lower bound is the min C retracement input, no tolerance) (line 412)
AB/XA ≈ 0.786 (line 417)
AD/XA between 1.272 and 1.618 (line 417)
C not beyond A (line 411)
D beyond X (line 417)

How it exits

D extends below X, so the stop sits 1% under D. Half the position takes profit at 1.5R, the stop on the rest moves to entry, and it runs to 2R (3R if D sits on the monthly Camarilla S3). How the exits work, and what we tested →

Results by timeframe

Every Butterfly the script found across about 500 stocks, no hand-picking and no filters. R is the gain or loss as a multiple of the amount risked; a setup is two equal halves, so its outcome is −1, +0.75, +1.75 or +2.25. The 95% range is clustered by instrument.

Timeframe	Setups	Share of TF	Win rate	Mean R (95% range)	Profit factor	−1 / +0.75 / +1.75 / +2.25
15-minute	1,280	7.8%	40.3%	+0.03 (-0.04 to +0.10)	1.06	753 / 98 / 405 / 6
1-hour	957	7.2%	45.1%	+0.15 (+0.07 to +0.23)	1.27	520 / 96 / 321 / 12
4-hour	275	6.9%	52.4%	+0.36 (+0.21 to +0.51)	1.77	129 / 25 / 113 / 5
Daily	141	6.7%	48.9%	+0.25 (+0.04 to +0.47)	1.50	71 / 15 / 51 / 2

Year by year (mean R)

Year	15-minute	1-hour	4-hour	Daily
2016	—	+0.50 n=61	+0.38 n=25	+0.30 n=14
2017	—	+0.28 n=85	+1.25 n=22	+0.57 n=11
2018	—	-0.23 n=86	+0.07 n=30	-0.03 n=16
2019	—	+0.41 n=89	+0.97 n=19	+0.96 n=13
2020	—	+0.27 n=79	+1.08 n=24	+0.09 n=8
2021	—	+0.06 n=90	+0.65 n=30	+0.46 n=13
2022	—	-0.07 n=69	+0.13 n=28	+0.12 n=13
2023	-0.03 n=153	+0.11 n=93	+0.01 n=28	+0.04 n=17
2024	+0.05 n=395	+0.27 n=102	-0.26 n=22	+0.15 n=10
2025	+0.06 n=430	+0.17 n=117	-0.22 n=30	+0.11 n=24
2026	+0.00 n=302	-0.09 n=86	+0.32 n=17	-0.12 n=2

Backtests on today's Nasdaq-100 / S&P 500 members (survivorship bias), TradingView Strategy Tester, 0.01% commission, no slippage, all entry filters off. Education and research only — not financial advice.